Seeing as it is a topic that is unlikely to go away soon, I was curious to know what the state of the global nuclear industry looks like, where are new nuclear reactors being built? Here are two nuclear energy stories using visualizingenergy.org from Boston University.
Global history of nuclear reactors - 1951 to 2022
The first tells a story about the history of the nuclear energy industry from 1951 to 2022. Over this period 626 experimental, research, demonstration, and commercial reactors have been made operational This times series chart shows the addition of reactors year be year, shaded by global region.
You can read from the chart that
- The peak of the industry constructing new nuclear reactors was in the 1970s-1980s.
- The last 2 decades has been dominated by Asia - read India and China.
How old are reactors in the east and west
The second chart looks at the average age of operating reactors (so it ignores the age of those that have retired) for all countries that have nuclear energy. You can pick up to 6 countries, so below I’ve selected an east/west combo with UK, USA, France and Germany compared with India/China. The natural shape of the line as a straight inclines (age increasing each year) with new commissions and retirements that show up as notches that reduce the average age.
Consistent with the time series history above, the average age of reactors in USA starts at one in 1952 and oscillates around 4-5 through the 1960s and 1970s before beginning to creep up towards 10 and by 1990 starting the straight line that indicates no new reactors. The average age of operating nuclear reactors in USA in 2022 was 41 years.
The UK, France and Germany each follow similar trajectories, initial periods of building nuclear capacity to saturation, then increasing average age, generally from 1980, with occasional new commissions.
Meanwhile India/China have been building reactors for over 20 years, in India’s case since since 1980s, and are continuing to add new reactors.
What does this mean for nuclear industry in Australia?
Overlooking the need to establish nuclear regulatory capability, are we going to source nuclear technology from India or China, especially China that have commissioned reactors recently? Are we going to source reactors from United States or France that have not substantially added nuclear capacity in 20 years? (Which is not to say they have not at all.) And before you say Japan, its profile is not dissimilar to France, check it out yourself, so we’ll bundle them together.
Neither is without significant risk. And risk adds cost and delay. Not a good prospect for nuclear in Australia.